How the U.S. Presidential Election May Impact the S&P 500 Index

FXOpen

Today, 5 November, the U.S. presidential election is underway, and it may serve as a significant driver of volatility for global stock markets.

According to EuroNews, heightened market fluctuations are expected throughout the voting period on 5 November, potentially mirroring reactions observed during the Brexit referendum and the 2016 U.S. election. Newsweek notes that historically, U.S. stock markets tend to rise regardless of the election winner. In 2020, for example, American stocks rose immediately after election day and continued upward even as Trump contested the results.

Investor’s Business Daily highlights Tony Roth, CIO of Wilmington Trust, who argues that U.S. stock markets could climb regardless of whether Harris or Trump wins, as both candidates provide viable economic paths that could support market sentiment.

On 14 October, analysing the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), we plotted three narrow upward channels (shown in blue), noting:
→ each channel has a similar slope and width;
→ connecting the maximum of Channel 1, the peak and trough of Channel 2, and the low of Channel 3 outlines a larger channel (in orange).

Today’s technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows the current index level near the lower edge of the third blue channel, with additional support around:
→ former resistance at $5678;
→ the lower orange boundary.

Election results may trigger a volatility spike, potentially testing or reinforcing these support levels, which could shape future market momentum.

Trade global index CFDs with zero commission and tight spreads. Open your FXOpen account now or learn more about trading index CFDs with FXOpen.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Stay ahead of the market!

Subscribe now to our mailing list and receive the latest market news and insights delivered directly to your inbox.

Latest articles

Shares

Apple Report Drives Bearish Sentiment for AAPL Stock

Apple, the largest U.S. market-cap company, released its Q3 earnings report on October 31:

→ Earnings per share (EPS): Actual = $0.97, Expected = $1.60
→ Gross revenue: Actual = $94.9 billion, Expected = $94.5 billion

The nearly 40% miss on

Commodities

XAU/USD Analysis: Gold Price Chart Displays Bearish Signals

Analysing the XAU/USD chart on October 18, we:

→ Established a long-term upward channel (indicated in blue);
→ Suggested that the target for bulls might be the upper red line, drawn parallel to the red corrective channel.

Since then:
→ The gold

Forex Analysis

Market Analysis: AUD/USD and NZD/USD Rebound Could Be Limited

AUD/USD is attempting a recovery wave from 0.6540. NZD/USD is also correcting losses and might recover further if there is a clear move above the 0.6030 resistance.

Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD Analysis

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 60% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.