Inflation in the UK Has Fallen

According to Forex Factory, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) reading came in below expectations: while analysts had forecast a decline to 2.7% year-on-year from the previous 2.8%, the actual CPI figure was 2.6%.

Following the release of this news, the GBP/USD exchange rate rose to 1.3280 – the highest level in seven months.

On the one hand, falling inflation is a sign of a healthy economy and a relief for the Bank of England, especially considering that CPI stood in double digits just two years ago. As a result, analysts may now predict that interest rates could be cut at the meeting scheduled for 8 May.

On the other hand, demand for the dollar remains volatile due to Trump’s tariff policies, fears of a US recession, and a wave of bond sell-offs.

Technical Analysis of the GBP/USD Chart

In just one week, the pound-to-dollar rate has risen by approximately 4.2%, with the RSI indicator now hovering near extreme overbought levels. Furthermore, the price is approaching the upper boundary of the ascending channel, which has been in play since the beginning of 2025.

In such conditions, a correction (with a bearish breakout of the ascending trendline, shown in blue) appears a logical development. However, a key factor in sustaining the current trend of dollar weakness could be the speech by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, scheduled for today at 20:30 GMT+3.

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