Market Analysis: USD/CNH Reaches Year-to-date High


Over the past 2 months, CNH has appreciated about 4.4% against the US dollar, reflecting the differences in monetary policies in the world's two largest (and competing) economies.

Yesterday's statistics showed a decrease in inflation in the US, but its level is still far from the target values. It is expected that the Fed at today's meeting will take a break after 10 consecutive increases in the key interest rate, keeping the prospect of raising it until the end of the year. The decision will be published at 21:00 GMT+3, followed by Powell's press conference at 21:30.

In China, the central bank lowered key short-term interest rates on Tuesday. It is expected that rates on medium-term loans may be lowered on Thursday. Barclays predicts that the Central Bank of China will cut rates every quarter in 2023, as economic growth after the lifting of restrictions due to Covid is disappointing.

With China stimulating the economy and curbing inflation by shrinking the US economy, USD/CNH hit its highest since the start of the year, trading near 7.18 today. Thus, the quote is fixed above the level of 7.15, which acted as resistance at the beginning of the month.

The USD/CNH chart shows that the rate is moving within the ascending channel along its median line. The WSJ writes that the difference in US and Chinese monetary policy may continue to put pressure on the weakening yuan.

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