NZD/USD Analysis: Exchange Rate Nears 2025 Low

Less than a month ago, we analysed the NZD/USD chart and:
→ highlighted the key resistance level at 0.5800;
→ outlined a potential scenario involving a decline from that zone.

Now, the NZD/USD pair is trading close to its lowest level of 2025, recorded on 3 February near 0.5525. The latest surge in volatility appears to be driven by President Trump’s widely discussed decision to impose substantial tariffs on trade with multiple countries.

For context, the Australian dollar has fallen to a five-year low amid concerns that retaliatory trade measures could trigger a global recession. The New Zealand dollar, however, has remained somewhat more stable — possibly because traders are anticipating Wednesday’s Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) meeting, where the central bank may signal efforts to stabilise the currency. According to Forex Factory, a rate cut from 3.75% to 3.50% is expected.

Technical analysis of NZD/USD chart

Price movements in 2025 have formed an ascending channel (marked in blue), but bears broke through the lower boundary late last week near the 0.5666 level.

This suggests that even if NZD/USD sees a short-term rebound, it may face resistance around that same level — a classic “break-and-retest” pattern often watched by traders.

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