Only yesterday we questioned the sustainability of the stock market’s upward trend amid alarming news from the Middle East and the evacuation of the US embassy in Iraq — and today, the S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) shows a break below the lower boundary of the ascending trend channel.

According to media reports:

→ Steve Witkoff, US President Donald Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, was expected to meet Iran’s Foreign Minister in Oman on Sunday.
→ Friday the 13th became the date when Israel launched strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, dramatically altering the outlook for a potential US-Iran nuclear agreement.
→ Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that the US was not involved in the operation, while Israel’s state broadcaster reported that Washington had been informed ahead of the strikes.

Technical Analysis of the S&P 500 Chart

Yesterday morning, we noted that the Q-line, which divides the lower half of the channel into two quarters, had shifted from acting as support to becoming resistance. This was confirmed during the US trading session (as indicated by the arrow).

Selling pressure intensified, and the psychologically important 6,000 level — which showed signs of support earlier in June — now appears to be acting as resistance. It is in this area that the E-Mini S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) broke below the lower boundary of its uptrend channel.

In addition to ongoing discussions about potential Fed rate cuts this summer, geopolitical risk assessments are now also in focus. It remains unclear how Washington will respond if Iran retaliates.

Meanwhile, Israel’s Defence Minister has declared a state of emergency, warning of an imminent missile and drone attack — further fuelling fears of a possible escalation.

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