S&P 500 Index May Lose Upward Momentum

News & Analysis / / S&P 500 Index May Lose Upward Momentum

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14 May 2025, 08:32

Yesterday’s inflation data release held no major surprises, as the actual Consumer Price Index (CPI) figures came in close to analysts’ forecasts.

According to Forex Factory:
→ Annual CPI: actual = 2.3%, forecast = 2.4%, previous = 2.4%;
→ Monthly Core CPI: actual = 0.2%, forecast = 0.3%, previous = 0.1%.

Overall, stock indices rose yesterday, but according to media reports, this momentum may begin to slow in the near future:
→ UBS analysts downgraded their rating on US equities from “attractive” to “neutral” following the recovery from early April lows;
→ Goldman Sachs analysts believe that the US stock market rally could stall at current levels. In their view, the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) is likely to reach 5900 over the next three months.

Technical Analysis of the E-Mini S&P 500 Chart

The chart provides more reasons to suggest that the current pace of growth may begin to slow.

Firstly, the index has entered a broad range between 5800 and 6120, where it spent a prolonged period during late 2024 and early 2025. This is a zone (highlighted in purple) where supply and demand previously reached a stable equilibrium — and similar balance could potentially emerge again.

Secondly:
→ the slope of the current upward channel (marked in black) appears excessively steep;
→ the RSI indicator points to a divergence;
→ the psychological level of 6000 may act as resistance.

Given the above, special attention should be paid to the scenario in which the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) forms a short-term correction before the end of the month.

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