Yesterday, disappointing news about the US economy was released. According to ForexFactory:
→ The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell from 48.5 to 46.8 (analysts expected a rise to 48.8), indicating a decline in industrial production.
→ The number of unemployment benefit claims reached 249,000 – the highest in 12 months.

As a result, US stock indices declined, with bearish sentiment further driven by weak Q2 reports from several companies:
→ Intel decided to halt dividend payments (INTC shares plummeted by 19%).
→ Amazon reported a revenue decline (AMZN shares dropped by 6%).

The outperformance of sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare, and utilities compared to technology stocks suggests that investors fear a recession and are rotating into more stable assets.

Meanwhile, the daily S&P 500 chart (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) indicates a vulnerable position – since mid-April, the price has been moving within an upward channel (shown in blue), but today it is near the lower boundary, creating a risk of a bearish breakout.

Technical analysis of the S&P 500 (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen):
→ Having twice acted as support, the 5585 level has become resistance (as indicated by the arrows). A similar transformation may occur with the psychological level of 5400.
→ The lower highs in July provide grounds to define the contours of a downward channel, which will gain more relevance if the bears manage to push the price through the lower blue boundary – intensifying recession talks.

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