Euro and Pound Hold Gains as Markets Assess the US Employment Outlook

The euro and the pound continue to trade higher against the US dollar following last week's Federal Reserve meeting. As widely expected, the Fed left interest rates unchanged and reiterated that future monetary policy decisions would depend on incoming economic data. This cautious stance failed to provide fresh support for the dollar, while yesterday's weaker US labour market figures added further downward pressure. According to the latest ADP report, the US private sector added just 44,000 jobs, well below forecasts of 68,000 and the previous month's 95,000. Although the S&P Global Services PMI exceeded expectations, the ISM report painted a more mixed picture: the headline services index edged down to 54.1, while the employment component fell to 47.4, signalling continued cooling in the labour market. As a result, investors increased their expectations of a broader slowdown in the US economy, allowing both the euro and the pound to maintain their upward momentum.

EUR/USD

EUR/USD rallied strongly last week, breaking above the key resistance level at 1.1500. Since the start of this week, the pair has been trading sideways between 1.1500 and 1.1560 as investors await fresh macroeconomic data. Technical analysis suggests the bullish trend could extend towards 1.1600–1.1620 if the 1.1560 level becomes established as support. Conversely, a sustained move below 1.1500 would weaken the bullish outlook.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• Today at 09:00 (GMT+3): German Factory Orders;
• Today at 10:30 (GMT+3): Germany S&P Global Construction PMI;
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US Initial Jobless Claims.

GBP/USD

GBP/USD is showing a similar pattern, consolidating between 1.3420 and 1.3480 after last week's sharp advance. A decisive break above 1.3480 could pave the way for a retest of the July high near 1.3560. On the other hand, stronger-than-expected US economic data could push the pair back towards the 1.3350–1.3400 range.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• Today at 11:30 (GMT+3): UK Construction PMI;
• Today at 18:30 (GMT+3): Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate;
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): US ADP Private Non-Farm Employment Change.

The official US Nonfarm Payrolls report remains the key event for currency markets this week. Employment growth, the unemployment rate and wage data will provide investors with a clearer picture of the strength of the US economy and help shape expectations for future Federal Reserve policy. If the figures confirm further signs of labour market cooling, the dollar could come under renewed pressure, allowing EUR/USD and GBP/USD to extend their recent gains. Stronger-than-expected data, however, could revive demand for the US dollar and trigger a correction in both European currencies.

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