The S&P 500 index remains positive against all odds

We noted on 29 September that, amid the US shutdown, sentiment in the S&P 500 index market remained positive, and highlighted factors supporting further growth.

Today, the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reached a fresh all‑time high: on Friday morning the price rose above 6 740 points. This confirms the continued optimism among market participants. Today this is supported by news related to the creators of ChatGPT.

According to media reports, OpenAI:
→ has reached a valuation of $500 billion following a deal in which current and former employees sold shares worth around $6.6 billion;
→ is expanding cooperation with semiconductor manufacturers in South Korea, which is expected to sustain the company’s high growth rate.

Thus, OpenAI’s successes are boosting investor optimism ahead of the upcoming earnings season.

These and other positive developments might have been overshadowed by the regular Non‑Farm Employment Change report (and other US labour market data), but the Bureau of Labour Statistics is closed due to the shutdown.

Technical analysis of the S&P 500 chart

Recent data on the 4‑hour chart of the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) underline sustained optimism, as the price develops within a previously established ascending channel, highlighted in blue.

From a bullish perspective:
→ bulls showed strength by breaking a local resistance level at 6 700, which later acted as support (indicated by an arrow);
→ local peaks allow for steeper upward trendlines to be drawn;
→ if the move from A→B is seen as the main impulse and B→C as a correction, the correction appears shallow, as the reversal upwards occurred from the 0.382 Fibonacci level, highlighting strong demand.

From a bearish perspective:
→ the price is approaching the upper boundary of the channel, where profit‑taking by long holders is typical;
→ the current peak on the e‑mini S&P 500 chart slightly exceeds the October high (A), suggesting the potential for a bearish divergence;
→ the absence of news creates an “information vacuum” that could significantly influence market sentiment if filled with negative data.

Nonetheless, optimism persists, with Tom Lee (Fundstrat) forecasting that the S&P 500 index will exceed 7 000 points by year‑end.

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