The US Dollar Is Weakening Following Inflation Data

Yesterday saw the release of key economic indicators for the US. According to ForexFactory:

→ Core Price Index (CPI) monthly: actual = 0.3%, expected = 0.4%, previous = 0.4%;

→ Core Price Index (CPI) annual: actual = 3.4%, expected = 3.4%, previous = 3.5%;

→ Retail Sales monthly: actual = 0.0%, expected = 0.4%, previous = 0.6%.

Concerns about rising inflation did not materialise. Reuters reports that unchanged retail sales suggest conditions are forming for interest rate cuts.

Financial markets reacted significantly, with the US dollar weakening:

→ As we reported yesterday, signs of slowing inflation increased market participants' belief in imminent rate cuts, leading to the S&P 500 stock index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen) reaching an all-time high;

→ Gold prices reached a high not seen since April 21;

→ Other currencies strengthened against the US dollar.

An interesting situation is developing on the USD/JPY chart. Applying Fibonacci ratios, we note three instances where price recovery halted around the 0.382 level:

→ Recovery from B to C following the impulsive decline from A to B;

→ Recovery from D to E after the impulsive decline from C to D;

→ Recovery from F to G after the 3-wave decline from A to F.

According to technical analysis of USD/JPY, these proportions indicate that demand is consistently fading with each attempt to restore the upward trend described by the blue channel.

Moreover, the local peak at G provides information about the median line, acting as resistance. Therefore, there are grounds to assume that bears will continue to dominate, pushing prices downward. If this scenario unfolds, lower support levels (151.85, 150.88, psychological level 150.00), as well as the lower boundary of the channel, will test the seriousness of the bears' intentions.

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