Trump’s Tariffs on Canada: USD/CAD Remains Volatile

We are witnessing a surge in market volatility (as reflected by the upward trend of the ATR indicator), influenced by the following factors, according to Reuters:

→ Trump’s Tariffs. On Tuesday, new 25% import duties on Mexico and Canada came into effect, while tariffs on Chinese goods were doubled to 20%.

→ Donald Trump’s first speech in Congress since taking office. In it, the US president made significant statements, including the announcement of new tariffs.

The US Dollar Index initially rose during Trump’s speech but later weakened to a three-month low. In theory, higher tariffs are positive for the US dollar. However, investors are looking beyond short-term safe-haven flows and are concerned about slowing US economic growth and the risk of stagflation.

Why Is Trump Imposing Tariffs?

Officially, US President Donald Trump is introducing tariffs on Canada to combat the "extraordinary threat" to US national security posed by uncontrolled drug trafficking.

However, according to Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump’s tariffs are aimed at weakening Canada’s economy—or even pushing it towards collapse—so that the US could more easily annex Canadian territory.

Technical Analysis of USD/CAD

In our previous USD/CAD analysis, we highlighted key levels:

→ Resistance at 1.44600
→ Support at 1.43600

New chart data shows that bulls attempted to break through the 1.44600 resistance level, but the price failed to hold above the psychological barrier of 1.45000. Support at 1.43600 remains relevant for now.

Bulls may attempt another push upwards if the price retraces to the lower blue trendline. However, whether this scenario plays out will largely depend on the broader fundamentals related to Trump’s tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China.

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