Last week, United Parcel Service (UPS)—one of the world's largest parcel delivery, supply chain management, and courier service companies—released its quarterly report.

→ Earnings per share: Actual = $2.75, Expected = $2.53
→ Total revenue: Actual = $25.4 billion, Expected = $25.3 billion

Despite EPS exceeding forecasts by over 8%, UPS shares plunged to $110, a level last seen in mid-2020 when the US economy was recovering from the pandemic.
Investor Disappointment Over Amazon Cutbacks

The stock decline was driven by UPS’s decision to further reduce its business with Amazon. The company stated that its 2025 revenue would be around $6 billion below analysts’ expectations due to halving the volume of Amazon parcels it processes—despite Amazon being its largest customer.

UPS CEO Carol Tomé explained that the company wants to move away from Amazon as profit margins in this segment are too low, negatively impacting overall profitability.

According to The Wall Street Journal (WSJ), UPS management is under pressure from dissatisfied investors, a significant portion of whom are long-serving company employees. Due to UPS's unique shareholder structure, veteran employees—who control 63% of voting rights—have suffered billions in collective losses due to the stock's decline.

Shortly after releasing the report, UPS announced a quarterly dividend increase from $1.63 to $1.64 per share, though this is unlikely to offset the stock’s 40% decline over the past three years.

Technical Analysis of UPS Stock

UPS shares remain in a downward trend (as indicated by the red channel).

Following the latest drop:
→ The price fell below $124, a key resistance level in 2018–2019.
→ The stock reached the lower boundary of the channel, which may act as a support level, preventing a further decline toward the psychological $100 mark.

Is Now the Time to Buy UPS Shares?

Analysts have lowered their UPS price targets:

→ Stephens revised its target from $140 to $127.
→ DA Davidson downgraded UPS from "Buy/Add" to "Neutral", cutting the target from $154 to $116.
→ Redburn Atlantic reduced its target from $159 to $137.
→ Loop Capital revised its target from $120 to $115.
→ Oppenheimer lowered its target from $146 to $126.

From a technical perspective, reversing the multi-month downtrend seems challenging. However, if UPS reconsiders its Amazon strategy under investor pressure, this could provide an opportunity for buyers.

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