Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said today that there is a high likelihood that accommodative monetary conditions will continue even after the bank ends its negative interest rate policy — an event that is expected as early as next month, according to Reuters.
On the other hand, the USD index has been strengthening since the beginning of 2024, indicating that market participants assume that the easing of the current tight Fed policy may last longer.
As a result, the price of USD/JPY rises again towards the psychological level of 150 yen per dollar.
The weekly USD/JPY chart shows that:
→ After an attempt at a bullish breakout of this level in the fall of 2022, a strong bearish impulse occurred (justified by the actions of the Bank of Japan to protect the yen), and the price dropped below the level of 130 yen per dollar in early 2023.
→ After an attempt at a bullish breakout in the fall of 2023, a less powerful bearish movement formed, the rate did not fall below 140 yen per dollar.
As a result, a huge cup-and-handle pattern has formed on the USD/JPY chart, which suggests that another attempt at a bullish breakout of the 150 yen per dollar level (if it happens) may be successful, and then the price will have room to continue to rise within the long-term ascending channel (shown in blue).
Technical analysis of the USD/JPY price on lower time frames will provide more details, updated in real time, about how active the bulls are in their push towards the 150 yen level, and how effectively the bears are resisting.
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