As shown on the chart of Walmart (WMT) shares, trading closed yesterday above the $94 mark – a level not seen since the beginning of March. This means that since the start of 2025, Walmart’s share price has risen by approximately 5.5%.

This positive trend stands in stark contrast to the S&P 500 index (US SPX 500 mini on FXOpen), which has declined by more than 8% over the same period.

Why are Walmart (WMT) shares outperforming the index?

Apparently, from the market’s point of view, this is due to the fact that Walmart’s supermarkets are a source of essential goods for Americans, giving the company an advantage in a scenario where the US economy may slide into recession.

According to Mizuho Bank analyst David Bellinger, Walmart is a sensible choice for investors trying to stay afloat in a volatile market. He forecasts that WMT’s share price could rise to $105 – around 15% higher than its current level.

Bellinger notes that Walmart continues to attract price-conscious shoppers and has made significant progress in e-commerce, helping the company remain resilient even amid the prospect of economic slowdown.

Technical analysis of Walmart (WMT) shares

The chart shows that the share price is moving within a long-term upward trend. The black dashed line, which had acted as support for many months, has been broken:

• This suggests that the line may now act as a median.
• Allowed us to widen the channel and find its lower boundary, which is expected to offer support.

Indeed, the lower boundary of the expanded channel provided support in the first half of April, with particular attention drawn to the large bullish candlestick on 9 April (marked with an arrow). According to the NYSE, over 46 million shares were traded on that day – more than twice the average volume. This highlights the strength of demand.

It is possible that WMT shares may continue to outperform the index going forward, forming fluctuations while:

• receiving support from the psychological $90 level (previously a resistance point);
• gradually approaching the median of the aforementioned channel.
  

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