In mid-June 2025, demand for gold surged following reports of exchanged strikes between Israel and Iran, along with US bombings of Iran's nuclear facilities. As a so-called safe-haven asset, gold prices climbed towards $3,430.

However, by the final day of June, the XAU/USD chart shows that gold had retreated to around $3,250, marking the lowest level in a month.

Why Is the Gold Price Falling?

On one hand, this reflects easing tensions in the Middle East, as a ceasefire—albeit fragile—between Israel and Iran remains in place.

On the other hand, the risk of trade wars is also diminishing. According to media reports:
→ President Donald Trump announced last week that the United States had signed a trade agreement with China and hinted that a “very major” deal with India would follow soon.
→ The US is also close to concluding agreements with Mexico and Vietnam, while negotiations with Japan and many other countries are ongoing.

Technical Analysis of the XAU/USD Chart

Looking at the broader picture, it is worth noting that gold prices in 2025 continue to move within a long-term upward channel (shown in blue), with the following key observations:
→ The channel’s median line acted as resistance (indicated by arrow 1);
→ The line dividing the lower half of the channel in half also showed signs of resistance (indicated by arrow 2).

Now, gold is trading near the lower boundary of the channel – a key support level within the multi-month uptrend. Demand may begin to strengthen here, with long lower wicks on candles on the lower timeframes supporting this view.

A rebound from the lower boundary is possible in early July, but how strong might it be? Note that bears have taken control of the $3,345 level (which has now flipped from support to resistance), and there are signs of a triple top pattern (A-B-C) forming near the $3,430 resistance. This raises the risk of a bearish breakout from the ascending channel.

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