When analysing the XAU/USD chart last week, we:

→ noted that the ADX indicator had reached its lowest level since the beginning of 2025 – a clear sign of declining gold price volatility;
→ highlighted the formation of a large-scale triangle with its axis around the $3,333 level, bounded by a resistance line (marked in red) and the lower boundary of the ascending channel.

Since then, the price has climbed above $3,400 – reaching its highest level since mid-June. According to media reports, the uptick in demand may be driven by escalating geopolitical risks, renewed optimism regarding potential monetary policy easing in the US, and consistent gold buying from central banks.

This suggests that the balance has shifted in favour of the bulls, who have made an attempt to break through the resistance line – an attempt that, so far, appears promising and points towards a potential resumption of the upward trend.

However, today's XAU/USD chart shows that the bulls are now facing a key resistance level at $3,440 – a level that has reversed gold prices downward both in May and June. What will happen in July?

It is possible that, following a prolonged consolidation near the lower boundary of the channel, the bulls have built up sufficient momentum to finally break through this critical level and push gold prices towards line Q, which divides the lower half of the long-term channel into two quarters.

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