Rising Yields Put Pressure on the Fed at Wednesday’s Meeting


The main event of the week for financial markets is the Fed’s FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Besides the regular statement, the Fed will reveal its economic projections, and the market will focus on the dots plot that shows the federal funds rate forecast for the next three years.

The event is particularly important for traders because the dollar is at crossroads. If the Fed signals a liftoff before 2024, the markets will take it as a hawkish signal that would trigger a wave of dollar buying. On the other hand, if the dots plot do not show any increase until 2024, the Fed signals its willingness to keep accommodative conditions despite the recent fiscal stimulus.

Rising Yields Put Pressure on the Fed at Wednesday’s Meeting

Challenges for the Fed

The big challenge for the Fed comes from the long-term yields, which rose recently. While the move higher is insignificant on the long-term charts, it does signal an unwanted tightening of financial conditions.

Moreover, the move higher in the yields generated a dollar rally at the end of February, tempered only by the new round of fiscal stimulus from Biden’s administration. Should the yields rise further, the investors may turn their attention to the dollar again. Yields typically rise during the economic recovery, and the new fiscal stimulus package leads to faster recovery.

Ahead of Wednesday’s meeting, the dollar remains offered – the EURUSD is back above 1.19, the AUDUSD is above 0.77, and the GBPUSD trades close to 1.40. If the Fed hints at no rate hike until 2024, the dollar may take another dive. On the other hand, if the Fed is pressured by the rising yields and hints at a rate hike as early as 2023, the dollar may rally, sending the EURUSD below its recent 1.1840 support.

All in all, traders are guaranteed to see high volatility and quick price action as the Fed unveils its economic projections.

This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

Latest from Financial Market News

Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: NASDAQ’S NEW TOP, USD/CAD NEWS, WTI OIL, NVDA SHARES DECLINE Federal Reserve's 2024 Interest Rate Outlook: A Measured Descent Expected Weekly Market Wrap With Gary Thomson: EUR/GBP’s NEW HIGH, US INFLATION, S&P500 FORECAST, BRENT CRUDE Sterling Makes Modest Gains Following Cabinet Reshuffle by PM Rishi Sunak Bank of England Initiates Stress Test In Aftermath of Liz Truss Budget Disaster

Latest articles

Forex Analysis

EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY Analysis: US Dollar Falls to Its Lowest Level Since Mid-August

EUR/USDThe euro strengthened on Monday as the dollar fell on expectations that the Federal Reserve will not raise rates again. Traders this week will have to weigh data on how the US economy performed in the third quarter, as


NASDAQ Composite Index Heralds a Fine Time for Tech Stocks

In the ever-fluctuating landscape of financial markets, the NASDAQ exchange, home to some of the world's most prominent technology stocks, has been a bastion of volatility over the past two years. This week, the NASDAQ index continues its upward trajectory,

Trader’s Tools

Fibonacci Retracement Strategies

Fibonacci retracements are a cornerstone in the toolkit of many traders, offering a mathematical approach to identifying potential areas where reversals may occur. This article delves into the intricacies of using Fibonacci retracements, covering everything from basic understanding to strategies

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 60% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work, and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.