Commodity Currencies at Strategic Levels. What Can Affect a Breakdown Downwards?

FXOpen

The decline in investor expectations regarding a change in the vector of the Fed's monetary policy contributes to the fall of not only European, but also commodity currencies. So, in recent weeks:

  • AUD/USD has lost more than 200 points and is testing the extremes of 2023 near 0.6400
  • USD/CAD is trading at three-year highs and has managed to strengthen by 300 points

What may affect the pricing of the main currency pairs on the market in the coming trading sessions:

  • speech by the President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Austan Goolsbee (today at 17.30 GMT+3.00)
  • publication on the number of active drilling rigs from Baker Hughes (today at 20.00 GMT+3.00)
  • announcement on the base lending rate from the People's Bank of China (Monday at 4.15 GMT+3.00)

USD/CAD

The USD/CAD currency pair has come close to the important range of 1.3970-1.3800, above which the price has not risen since 2020.

Technical analysis of USD/CAD indicates the possibility of a downward correction in the short term, since a dark clouds combination has been formed on the daily timeframe, the development of which could lead to a breakdown of yesterday’s low at 1.3740 and a further test of 1.3650-1.3620. If the upward movement resumes, the price may break through the recent high at 1.3840 and continue to rise in the direction of 1.3970-1.3880.

AUD/USD

A couple of days ago, a bullish harami combination was formed in the AUD/USD pair on the daily timeframe. This formation allowed buyers of the pair to correct to 0.6460. However, it was not possible to start a larger upward correction, and today the recent low at 0.6390 was updated. If this level becomes resistance, the price may decline to the 2023 lows at 0.6290-0.6270.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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