Commodity Currencies Retreat Ahead of the Release of the FOMC Minutes

AUD/USD is pulling back from local highs, while USD/CAD continues to recover amid a stronger US dollar and ahead of the release of the Federal Reserve minutes. Following an extended rally, commodity-linked currencies have entered a corrective phase, although the current move still appears more like profit-taking and a test of key technical levels than a full trend reversal. Market participants remain cautious ahead of the publication of the FOMC minutes, which could reshape expectations regarding the future path of US interest rates.

Additional investor attention will focus on tomorrow’s batch of Australian economic data, including labour market figures and inflation expectations. These indicators may influence expectations surrounding the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next policy steps. At the same time, the US dollar continues to draw support from rising Treasury yields and a broader decline in risk appetite ahead of key Fed-related releases.

USD/CAD

USD/CAD continues to recover after forming a bullish hammer pattern. Previously highlighted levels have already been tested, and if the 1.3720–1.3730 range turns into support, the pair may continue advancing towards 1.3800–1.3840. At the same time, rejection from current levels accompanied by a bearish reversal pattern could trigger the start of a downward correction.

Key events for USD/CAD:

• today at 16:15 (GMT+3): speech by Federal Reserve Vice Chair for Supervision Michael S. Barr;
• today at 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories;
• tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+3): Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (US).

AUD/USD

The failure of AUD/USD buyers to secure a move above 0.7200 resulted in the formation of a bearish tower pattern on the daily timeframe. Technical analysis of AUD/USD points to the potential development of a downward correction towards 0.7020–0.7050. However, if price returns above 0.7140, the bearish correction scenario could be invalidated.

Key events for AUD/USD:

• today at 21:00 (GMT+3): release of the FOMC minutes;
• tomorrow at 02:00 (GMT+3): Australia Services PMI;
• tomorrow at 04:30 (GMT+3): Australian full employment change.

Overall, commodity currencies are entering a corrective phase following a prolonged rally, while the US dollar is receiving support from expectations surrounding the FOMC minutes and rising US Treasury yields. Market reaction to the Fed’s rhetoric will become the key driver for further AUD/USD and USD/CAD price action: more hawkish signals from policymakers could reinforce the current dollar rally, while softer commentary may restore demand for commodity currencies and limit the scope of the correction.

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