Commodity Currencies Retreat from Recent Highs

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The first trading week of September is packed with significant macroeconomic data releases. On Friday, the US employment report is expected, tomorrow the Bank of Canada will announce its interest rate decision, and the US non-manufacturing PMI and crude oil inventory data will also be published. In anticipation of this data mix, the Canadian and Australian currencies have retreated from their recent highs and are currently in a phase of corrective decline. Let's consider the potential scenarios for the upcoming trading sessions.

USD/CAD

Technical analysis of USD/CAD indicates the potential for a deeper upward correction, as a "bullish engulfing" pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. If the 1.3500 level holds as support, the pair could continue to rise towards 1.3620-1.3580. A drop below 1.3490-1.3470 would invalidate the bullish scenario.
Today, investors and market participants are awaiting the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision. It is expected that the rate will be reduced by 0.25% to 4.25%. Given the pair's movement in recent days, this decision seems to be priced in. What will be important for investors are the Canadian regulator's future plans, including the timing and scale of the next rate cut. Key events to watch in the coming days include:

  • Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): Canada’s trade balance for July
  • Today at 15:30 (GMT+3): US export and import data for July
  • Today at 16:45 (GMT+3): Bank of Canada's interest rate decision

AUD/USD

The failure of AUD/USD buyers to break through the 0.6800 resistance level has led to the formation of a "tower" pattern on the daily timeframe. Technical analysis of the AUD/USD pair suggests the potential for further decline if the 0.6700 level turns into resistance.
Early tomorrow morning, a series of important data releases from Australia is expected:

  • At 4:30 (GMT+3): Australia’s trade balance for July
  • At 5:00 (GMT+3): Speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock

Read analytical AUD/USD price forecasts for 2024 and beyond.