Commodity Currencies Test New Lows Ahead of FOMC Minutes

A strong US labour market report, released last week, has contributed to the decline in European and commodity currencies. The USD/CAD pair managed to strengthen above 1.3600, the AUD/USD pair tested 0.6720 as support, and the NZD/USD pair dropped below the 0.6100 mark. The increase in average wages (0.4% vs. expected 0.3%) and the rise in new jobs (254K vs. a forecast of 147K) have reduced investors' confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower rates at its next meeting.

USD/CAD

Strong data from the US and escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have pushed USD/CAD out of the short-term flat corridor of 1.3600–1.3480. Technical analysis of USD/CAD indicates potential further growth if the upper boundary of the recently broken range becomes support. On the daily time frame, the previously formed "Piercing Line" pattern is in play. The nearest growth target is the 1.3750–1.3710 range. The bullish scenario would be invalidated if the price firmly settles below 1.3630–1.3600.

Key events impacting USD/CAD pricing today:

• 15:00 (GMT+3): Speech by FOMC member Raphael Bostic.
• 17:30 (GMT+3): US crude oil inventories report.
• 21:00 (GMT+3): Release of the FOMC meeting minutes.

NZD/USD

Major central banks are gradually shifting from a hawkish stance to easing monetary policies. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand followed suit this morning by cutting its base interest rate by 0.50% – from 5.25% to 4.75%.

This decision has led to the continuation of the downward trend in NZD/USD, which has been observed since late September. According to technical analysis, the pair may continue its decline towards the 0.6640–0.6610 range. A bearish "Tower" pattern has formed on the daily time frame, and the price has settled below the important 0.6150–0.6100 range.

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