Dollar Declines Ahead of Employment Report Release

The US currency continues to test new lows amid slowing economic growth in the United States and the introduction of new tariffs on China and Canada. Investor disappointment with Trump’s initial executive orders has led to broad-based dollar sell-offs.

USD/JPY

At the start of the week, USD/JPY sellers managed to break a key support level at 149.00–148.60. The price had not fallen below this range since November last year. The downward breakout was followed by a rebound and a retest of the psychological level at 150.00.

Technical analysis of USD/JPY suggests a potential continuation of the downtrend towards 147.00–146.80, as a bearish engulfing pattern is forming on the daily timeframe. To negate the bearish correction scenario, the pair must consolidate above 150.60–150.00.

In the coming trading sessions, the following events could influence USD/JPY pricing:

• Today at 16:30 (GMT+2): US initial jobless claims
• Today at 16:30 (GMT+2): US non-farm productivity
• Today at 21:00 (GMT+2): GDPNow indicator from the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta
• Today at 23:30 (GMT+2): Speech by FOMC member C. Waller

USD/CAD

New tariffs on Canadian goods, introduced two days ago, have driven USD/CAD back towards the 1.4550–1.4500 range. Dollar buyers failed to break above this level, and a subsequent pullback from 1.4550 led to the formation of a bearish engulfing pattern. Technical analysis of USD/CAD indicates a possible downward correction towards 1.4230–1.4170. A resumption of the uptrend is possible if the pair consolidates firmly above 1.4480.

Key events to watch until the end of the week:

• Today at 16:30 (GMT+2): Canada’s trade balance
• Today at 17:00 (GMT+2): Ivey Purchasing Managers’ Index for Canada
• Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2): US average hourly earnings
• Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2): Canada’s employment change

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