European currencies, particularly the pound and the euro, posted a sharp decline at the start of the week before shifting into a corrective rebound. However, the current move appears largely technical in nature, with the market maintaining a cautious stance ahead of the key US labour market report — Nonfarm Payrolls — due for release tomorrow.

Additional pressure on European currencies stems from the strengthening US dollar amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The escalation of the conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran has triggered a sharp increase in energy prices. Natural gas prices in Europe have surged on concerns over potential supply disruptions, as the widening conflict has affected the Strait of Hormuz — one of the key arteries for global liquefied natural gas supplies.

Rising energy costs are increasing inflationary risks for the European economy, which has only just begun recovering from the previous energy crisis. According to analysts’ estimates, if current energy price levels persist, inflation in the euro area could rise by around 0.5 percentage points. This reinforces expectations that European central banks may keep interest rates elevated for longer, while simultaneously heightening the risk of a slowdown in economic activity.

EUR/USD

Following its decline at the beginning of the week, EUR/USD found support at 1.1530 and managed to recover above 1.1600. On the daily timeframe, a bullish harami pattern has formed, though it remains unconfirmed. If the pair fails to consolidate above 1.1650 in the coming sessions, a renewed test of recent lows in the 1.1530–1.1570 range cannot be ruled out.

Key events for EUR/USD:

• Today at 12:00 (GMT+2): Speech by Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel;
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+2): US initial jobless claims;
• Today at 15:30 (GMT+2): US non-farm productivity data.

GBP/USD

At the start of the current trading week, GBP/USD fell below 1.3300. A sharp rebound from 1.3250 led to the formation of a bullish reversal candlestick pattern; however, without a firm break above 1.3400, it is premature to expect a sustained upward correction. Should buyers fail to hold support at 1.3300, the pair may revisit the recent low at 1.3250.

Key events for GBP/USD:

• Today at 11:30 (GMT+2): UK Construction PMI;
• Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT+2): UK Halifax House Price Index;
• Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2): US Nonfarm Payrolls.

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