The euro has moved into a phase of correction and consolidation ahead of key macroeconomic releases. In EUR/USD, a technical pullback is unfolding following the previous decline, while EUR/CAD continues a more extended corrective move within its medium-term structure. Market activity is easing as traders await important data from the euro area, the United States and Canada, which could determine the next directional move.

In the euro area, the focus is on Germany’s GDP figures, the GfK consumer climate index and business activity indicators. These releases will help assess the resilience of the region’s largest economy amid a slowdown in the manufacturing sector. Weak data would increase pressure on the euro, while more solid readings could support attempts at stabilisation.

In the United States, investors are monitoring developments in the mortgage market, upcoming comments from Federal Reserve officials and oil inventory data. Trade policy also remains a source of uncertainty. President Donald Trump announced the introduction of a temporary global tariff of 10% for 150 days, with the administration not ruling out a further increase to 15%. The postponement of harsher measures has slightly eased tensions, yet ongoing trade risks continue to influence currency markets, including the euro and commodity-linked currencies.

EUR/USD

After the resumption of the downward move in EUR/USD last week, buyers managed to find support near 1.1740. A retest of this level and a rebound towards 1.1840 helped establish the boundaries of the current sideways range. Technical analysis points to consolidative trading conditions. A sustained move above 1.1840 could pave the way for gains towards 1.1900–1.1920. A break below 1.1740 may trigger a fresh bearish impulse.

Key events for EUR/USD:
– today at 09:00 (GMT+2): Germany GDP;
– today at 09:00 (GMT+2): Germany GfK Consumer Climate Index;
– today at 16:30 (GMT+2): speech by FOMC member Thomas Barkin.

EUR/CAD

EUR/CAD has been trading sideways for more than a month. The pair is testing 1.6180 as resistance and 1.6080 as support. A break above the upper boundary could lead to further gains towards 1.6200–1.6230. Conversely, a move below 1.6080 may open the way for a retest of the psychological 1.6000 level.

Key events for EUR/CAD:
– today at 15:30 (GMT+2): Canadian corporate profits;
– today at 17:30 (GMT+2): US crude oil inventories;
– tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT+2): Canadian wholesale sales.

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