Looking at recent moves in major currency pairs, it’s clear that market participants have come to terms with Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election and are starting to prepare for changes to the global economic landscape. Among the new president’s campaign promises was the introduction of additional tariffs on imports to the U.S. For instance, Trump has proposed around a 25% tariff on Mexican imports and a range of 10% to 20% for goods from European nations. Unsurprisingly, the prospect of potential trade wars is impacting the pricing of pairs such as EUR/USD and GBP/USD.

EUR/USD

The Euro has been in decline for the second consecutive week. Yesterday, it hit a new yearly low near 1.0600 but found support at 1.0590, bouncing slightly. If the 1.0600-1.0580 range turns into resistance, the pair may test the lows seen in 2023, around 1.0520-1.0460. A sustained upward move is likely only if the pair firmly clears 1.0730-1.0680.

The following news could significantly influence EUR/USD pricing:

• Today at 11:00 (GMT +3), a European Central Bank meeting on non-monetary policy
• Today at 13:30 (GMT +3), Germany's 10-year treasury bond auction
• Today at 16:30 (GMT +3), release of the U.S. core consumer price index (CPI)

GBP/USD

Yesterday, GBP/USD sellers broke through a critical support range at 1.2830-1.2800, with the price declining to 1.2720 before correcting to 1.2760. The price’s behavior around the 1.2800-1.2760 range will be key for identifying the next trend. A rejection at this level may lead to further declines towards 1.2720-1.2700, while a break above 1.2800 could signal the start of an upward correction.

Key events that could affect GBP/USD today:

• 12:45 (GMT +3) – Speech by Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee member Catherine Mann
• 13:00 (GMT +3) – Release of data on the sale of 4-year treasury securities in the UK
• 21:30 (GMT +3) – Speech by Federal Reserve official Jeffrey Schmid

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