European Currencies on Track to Yearly Highs


The first summer month saw a sharp rise in European and commodity currencies against the dollar. For instance, the pound/dollar is heading towards 1.2850, while the euro/dollar is set to test a significant resistance level at 1.0960. The surge in volatility at the beginning of the week was made possible thanks to the following events:

  • Yesterday at 17.00 (GMT +3:00) the release of the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the US (48.7 versus a forecast of 49.8);
  • Yesterday at 17.00 (GMT +3:00) the publication of the ISM Manufacturing Prices Index for the US (57.0 versus a forecast of 60.0).


Technical analysis of the eur/usd pair indicates the possibility of further growth towards 1.1100-1.1000, provided that the 1.0900 mark remains a support level.

In case of a break below the mentioned support, a test of 1.0880-1.0850 may be possible.

The following news releases may impact the pair's movement:

  • Today at 10.20 (GMT +3:00) speech by ECB Governing Council member Eduardo Fernandez-Bollo;
  • Today at 10.55 (GMT +3:00) release of the unemployment rate in Germany for May.


After retesting the important support level of 1.2700, the gbp/usd pair rose by more than 100 points, demonstrating the formation of a "piercing candle" pattern on the daily timeframe. If the range of 1.2750-1.2700 maintains its support status, the price could continue to strengthen towards this year's highs at 1.2890-1.2860. A break below the 1.2700 level could lead to another approach towards 1.2600-1.2550.

The following events will be crucial for price movement:

  • Today at 17.00 (GMT +3:00) release of the US Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for April (experts predict a slight decrease in the indicator);
  • Tomorrow at 11.30 (GMT +3:00) release of the UK Services Purchasing Managers' Index for May (experts expect 52.9 versus 55.0 last month).

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