Market Analysis: Commodity Currencies and Euro at Strategic Levels


Yesterday, the corrective pullback for the US dollar in major currency pairs was interrupted. But at the same time, important support held, which may indicate that greenback sellers will make another attempt to resume the downward movement.


The USD/CAD currency pair yesterday once again tried to go above 1.3750, but, as we can see, to no avail. Good data on the PMI in the US services sector contributed to the growth of the US dollar, but strategic levels have so far remained untouched.

Today, the Canadian currency is facing an important fundamental day, and perhaps the pair will be able to get out of the flat corridor between 1.3750 and 1.3650. At 17:00 GMT+3, a meeting of the Bank of Canada will be held, at which a decision on the base interest rate will be announced. A press conference of the Canadian regulator is scheduled a little later, at which Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem and Senior Deputy Governor Caroline Rogers will speak. Analysts assume that the rate will remain at the same level, 5%. For market participants, the comments of officials regarding the regulator’s further monetary policy will be primarily important.


Last week, the AUD/USD pair dropped below 0.6300, but failed to interrupt the recent extremes. On the daily timeframe, the emergence of a triple bottom figure can be seen. The development of this combination may be a breakdown of the base at 0.5450. A move below 0.6280 will break this combination and could contribute to a new downward impulse in the direction of 0.6000.

This morning, positive data on the consumer price index in Australia for the third quarter was published. The indicator increased by 1.2% against 0.8% in the previous quarter. At the American session, we are waiting for data on the number of building permits issued in the United States for September, as well as indicators on new home sales for the same period.


The single European currency is testing support at the alligator lines on the daily timeframe. The recent attempt at growth was interrupted by weak data on the Eurozone Services PMI and Composite PMI. If buyers hold above 1.0600, an upward correction in the direction of 1.0700-1.0800 may resume. A move below 1.0600 could encourage a retest of 1.0450.

Today at 11:00 GMT+3, we are waiting for data on the business climate index in Germany for October. It is also worth paying attention to the speech of ECB Chairman Christine Lagarde, which is scheduled for 20:00 GMT+3.

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