Market Analysis: European Currencies Testing Important Marks


Weak US labour market data released in early November and a fall in inflation recorded last week have bolstered investor belief that the Fed will begin cutting rates as early as the first quarter of next year. As a result of such market sentiment, the US dollar fell against almost all currency pairs. Thus, the euro/dollar currency pair is preparing to test psychological resistance at 1.1000, the pound/dollar pair is re-testing 1.2500, and the dollar/yen pair has fallen below 149.


According to the EUR/USD technical analysis, using the chaos trading system, we can observe the processing of the reversal bullish movement from November 1st. At the moment, the price has confidently strengthened above the alligator lines on the daily timeframe. If the current situation on the market does not change dramatically, a continuation of the upward movement in the direction of the upper fractals at 1.1150 and 1.1065 may occur. A downward price correction is possible to 1.0820-1.0780.

Today at 19:00 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the speech of the head of the ECB Christine Lagarde. Tomorrow at 12:00 GMT+3, the ECB's financial stability report will be published.


On the GBP/USD chart, the British currency, after testing 1.2500 last week, sharply retreated to 1.2370. However, buyers of the pair are not losing hope of gaining a foothold above the mentioned level and testing the important area of 1.2760-1.2700. The pair’s pricing will largely depend on the incoming foundation of the coming trading sessions.

Today at 13:15 GMT+3, the head of the Bank of England, Andrew Bailey, will speak. Tomorrow at 13:15 GMT+3, a Bank of England hearing on inflation is scheduled.


On the USD/JPY weekly chart, a sharp pullback from 151.90 contributed to the formation of a bearish reversal bar. At the moment, the price is trading near the support at the alligator lines at figure 148.

Today at 22:00 GMT+3, the minutes of the last Fed meeting will be published. If the content of this document confirms the Fed’s intention to change the vector of monetary policy, the USD/JPY pair may continue to decline in the direction of 147.00-145.00. Otherwise, growth to 150.00-149.00 is possible.

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