The Dollar Continues Range-bound Trading Ahead of US Employment Data


Despite a busy start to the current five-day period, major currency pairs remain near previously reached extremes. Here’s what happened in recent trading sessions:

  • The US ISM manufacturing PMI data was released (worse than expected: 48.7 vs. 49.8)
  • The ADP employment report was released (worse than expected: 152K vs. 173K)
  • The Bank of Canada meeting resulted in a 0.25% cut in the base interest rate to 4.75%


According to the technical analysis of the USD/CAD pair on the daily timeframe, range-bound trading between 1.3740-1.3590 prevails. The price has remained within this corridor for over four weeks, making it difficult to predict the future direction without a decisive breakout. Currently, a bounce from the upper boundary is observed, and with an appropriate news impulse, a retest of 1.3610-1.3590 can be expected. Key upcoming events to watch:

  • Today at 15:30 (GMT +3:00): Initial jobless claims in the US
  • Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT +3:00): Change in non-farm payrolls in the US (forecast: 185K)
  • Tomorrow at 15:30 (GMT +3:00): Change in full employment in Canada


The single European currency is approaching today’s ECB meeting near the recent high of 1.0900. Experts forecast that the European regulator will cut the base interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.25%. However, as this decision has already been announced, it is likely priced into the market. Investors will focus on the ECB’s accompanying statement regarding future actions this year. Other important data for the EUR/USD pair includes:

  • Today at 12:00 (GMT +3:00): Germany's industrial production for April
  • Tomorrow at 09:00 (GMT +3:00): Germany's trade balance
  • Tomorrow at 12:00 (GMT +3:00): Eurozone GDP for the first quarter

According to the technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair on the daily timeframe, a "piercing candle" pattern from 30 May is visible. If 1.0850 remains as support, the pair may continue to rise towards 1.1100-1.1000.

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