The penultimate five-day trading period of the past year turned out to be quite successful for commodity currencies. Thus, the AUD/USD pair is approaching the July extremes of this year, the USD/CAD pair has broken through the support at 1.3400, and the NZD/USD pair has confidently strengthened above 62. At the same time, European currencies failed to move above strategic levels and are slightly adjusted against the dollar.
The USD/CAD currency pair lost more than 200 pips last week and strengthened below the alligator lines on higher time frames. The likelihood of a change in the vector of monetary policy by the American Federal Reserve is contributing to the strengthening of the downward trend in the pair. Yesterday, data on the US consumer confidence index for December was published, showing positive dynamics: 110.7 versus 103.8. This fundamental impulse allowed the pair’s buyers to find support at 1.3310 and rebound to 1.3370, but so far no upward dynamics have been observed.
Today at 16:30 GMT+3, it is worth paying attention to the publication of US GDP data for the third quarter. Also, at this time, the core Canadian retail sales index for October will be published. In addition to the data already mentioned, weekly figures on the number of applications for unemployment benefits in the United States will be released.
On the daily and weekly USD/CAD charts, the price is below the alligator lines, the AO and AC oscillators are red, which additionally indicates sales. The downward scenario may be cancelled if the price confidently consolidates above 1.3460-1.3500.
The Australian currency strengthens for the second week in a row. Buyers of the pair came quite close to the July extremes of this year, which are located between 0.6800-0.6900. However, despite the sharp increase, a corrective decline to 0.6700-0.6600 cannot be ruled out.
Early tomorrow morning data on mortgage lending in Australia for November and reserve assets for the same period will be released.
On the weekly AUD/USD chart, the price is above the alligator lines, the AO and AC oscillators are green, which may enhance the upward movement in the direction of 0.6800-0.6900.
In the euro/dollar pair we are seeing a flat movement between 1.0920-1.0980. Today at 19:00 GMT+3, a speech is scheduled by ECB representative Philip Lane, and tomorrow at 12:00 GMT+3, data on the consumer confidence index in Italy and France will be published. It is quite possible that this fundamental data may contribute to an increase in volatility for the pair and beyond the indicated boundaries.
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