Yen and Commodity Currencies Testing Key Levels

News regarding the end of the tariff delay for Canada and the announcement of 25% tariffs on cars and other goods from the EU have interrupted the downward correction of the USD. Yesterday, several major currency pairs saw both tests of recent extremes and the formation of reversal patterns.

USD/CAD

In the USD/CAD pair, the price has returned to the old range between 1.4500–1.4300, where it traded at the beginning of the year. After Donald Trump's inauguration and news of possible tariffs on Mexico and Canada, USD/CAD surged to 1.4800. Earlier this month, an agreement was reached for a 30-day tariff delay, causing the pair to lose more than 500 pips.

Currently, USD/CAD is trading above 1.4300. If buyers manage to hold the price above this level, a test of 1.4400–1.4470 may occur in the coming sessions.

In the upcoming trading sessions, the following events may influence the pricing of USD/CAD:

• Today at 16:30 (GMT+2): US GDP
• Today at 16:30 (GMT+2): Initial Jobless Claims in the US
• Today at 16:30 (GMT+2): Canada’s Current Account Balance
• Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2): Canada’s GDP for Q4

USD/JPY

New tariffs and the potential start of a trade war between the US and China are pushing investors towards safe-haven currencies, particularly the Japanese yen.

In just a few weeks, the USD/JPY pair has lost over 600 pips, testing the December 2024 low at 148.60. Technical analysis indicates a potential upward correction towards 150.00–151.00, as a "bullish harami" pattern has formed on the daily timeframe. However, a break of the 148.60 support could resume the downward trend.

Key events that may influence the pricing of USD/JPY are as follows:

• Today at 18:00 (GMT+2): Speech by Michael S. Barr, Vice Chairman for Supervision of the Federal Reserve
• Tomorrow at 02:50 (GMT+2): Industrial Production in Japan
• Tomorrow at 16:30 (GMT+2): US Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index
• Tomorrow at 17:45 (GMT+2): Chicago Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) (US)

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