GBP/USD Analysis: Weak US Labour Market Data Pushes the Pair Higher

The pair gained momentum following the release of the US labour market report for July 2026 on 7 August. Non-farm employment fell by 23,000 jobs, compared with a forecast for an increase of 80,000 jobs among economists surveyed by Reuters. Employment data for May and June were also revised downwards, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The dollar responded with broad-based weakness. Earlier, on 30 July, the Bank of England kept its interest rate at 3.75% by a six-to-three vote, with three members of the committee voting for a rate hike. The regulator’s decision also highlighted inflation risks associated with volatility in energy prices.

Technical Analysis of GBP/USD

After a sharp rise from around 1.3280 towards 1.3500 in late July, the pair entered a narrowing range between the upper and lower boundaries of the current profile at 1.3483 and 1.3440, respectively. The two boundaries gradually converged, forming a pattern resembling a contracting triangle. The green impulse candle subsequently broke above the pattern’s upper boundary, while the price is attempting to establish itself above both the trendline and the profile boundary. If the bullish scenario develops, the price could move towards the red resistance level at 1.3555.

If the current breakout from consolidation proves to be false and the price returns inside the profile, the POC at 1.3465 and the lower profile boundary at 1.3440 will regain their importance for market participants. Below these levels lies the green support area at 1.3420. The RSI + MAs indicator shows three readings of 61, 57 and 57. All three values are above the neutral zone, while the moving averages are coloured green. It is also worth noting that vertical volume has declined compared with the late-July impulse.

Summary

The attempt to break above the triangle’s upper boundary could open the way towards a test of the red resistance area at 1.3555, but the sustainability and potential of the move may also depend on the flow of further US economic data.

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