Gold Analysis: Profit-Taking After the Rally

Gold continues to trade close to multi-month highs following its recent advance, which was supported by the latest US inflation data. July’s CPI broadly matched market expectations, reducing the likelihood of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. Lower expectations for further monetary tightening remain supportive for gold, as elevated interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. According to CNBC, some investors have begun taking profits after the rally. Over the coming weeks, expectations surrounding the Fed’s interest-rate path are likely to remain one of the main drivers of the precious metal.

Technical Analysis of Gold

The four-hour XAU/USD chart shows a sustained uptrend that lifted the price towards the red resistance level at $4,450. An ascending trendline developed during the rally, but on 13 August the price broke below it on increased volume. The subsequent decline established a green support area around $4,312.

Following a rebound, gold returned to the dense area of the current market profile and is now trading between the Point of Control (POC) at $4,397 and the lower boundary of the profile at $4,346. If selling pressure builds, the $4,312 support zone could become increasingly significant.

A continuation of the upward move would bring the price into a relatively strong cluster of technical levels. The first obstacles are the POC at $4,397 and the upper boundary of the profile at $4,415. Beyond these levels, attention would shift towards the trend high around $4,450.

The RSI + MAs indicator currently shows readings of 52, 53 and 58. The oscillator and fast moving average have moved back into the neutral zone, while the slower moving average is following the same direction.

Key Takeaways

The main driver for gold remains the market’s expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate path. A further decline in expectations for rate hikes could continue to support buyers, while more hawkish signals from the central bank could increase selling pressure as the market undergoes a post-rally correction.

In the short term, gold is also likely to remain sensitive to movements in the US dollar and Treasury yields, both of which can significantly influence demand for the precious metal.

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