USD/JPY: BoJ Momentum Meets a Fed Still Undecided

USD/JPY is caught in a genuine crossfire this week, and Thursday's move said it all: the yen surged nearly 2% in a single session, touching a one-month high near 155.28, as traders simultaneously priced in higher odds of a Bank of Japan hike and stayed alert to fresh intervention risk following July's joint US-Japan operation. BOJ board member Hajime Takata has even floated the possibility of outsized or back-to-back hikes to contain inflation, while Governor Ueda's comments this week reinforced expectations of a move as early as this month.

The dollar side offers no clean counter-narrative either. August's jobs report reshaped the Fed debate almost overnight, with payrolls coming in well above the 55,000 consensus, briefly reviving September hike bets that had cooled sharply after Fed Governor Waller signalled comfort with holding rates if inflation keeps easing. Markets are now split roughly 50–60% on a September move, leaving Chair Kevin Warsh's guidance, alongside the CPI and PPI prints later this week, as the real tie-breakers.

The result: a yen gaining genuine independent strength from hawkish BOJ signals, against a dollar whose own rate path remains stuck between conflicting data, leaving USD/JPY's next move hostage to whichever central bank commits first.

Technical Analysis of USD/JPY

As the USD/JPY chart shows, the pair has broken sharply below its long-term ascending trendline following Thursday's yen surge, with price now sitting right at the 155.00 support zone after decisively rejecting the confluence of the descending trendline, the 100 EMA and the resistance zone at the crucial 160.00 level.

Bullish Scenario

Should buyers defend the 155.00–156.00 support and reclaim the descending trendline, the path would open towards a retest of the 100-period EMA near 159.50, with a stronger recovery potentially targeting the 160.00–161.00 resistance zone that has capped rallies since May.

Bearish Scenario

Conversely, a confirmed break below the 155.00–156.00 support would expose the pair to the next crucial level, with a deeper slide risking a retest of the 152.00–153.00 zone, the low that anchored the entire 2026 uptrend.

With price having just lost its long-term ascending trendline and now testing critical support directly beneath the 100-period EMA, USD/JPY looks poised for a decisive move. Will the BoJ's hawkish momentum drag the pair into a genuine trend reversal, or will the dollar find its footing first?

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