NVDA Shares Approach Key Resistance

Nvidia’s chip production is concentrated with Taiwanese contractor TSMC, increasing the company’s exposure to geopolitical risks and US export policy. Restrictions on shipments to China, including decisions related to H20-series chips, have led to significant financial adjustments, which the market estimates at several billion dollars, linked to inventory and expected demand.

At the same time, the revenue structure remains resilient — around 69% of income is generated in the US domestic market, where hyperscalers continue to expand purchases of data centre accelerators. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue reached $68.1 billion, marking a 73% year-on-year increase, while full-year revenue totalled $215.9 billion (+65%).

In late March, the company announced an expansion of its strategic partnership with Marvell Technology, including a $2 billion investment and integration via the NVLink Fusion ecosystem, strengthening its position in the physical AI and robotics segments. At the same time, the broader macro backdrop remains subdued.

Technical Outlook

After reaching an all-time high near 210 in late October 2025, the stock appears to have entered a corrective downtrend. The correction may have bottomed at 165 on 30 March 2026, followed by a rebound, although prices remain around 177, showing no clear signs of a sustained recovery. The volume profile adds further context.

The highest concentration of trading activity during the observed period is located in the 181–183 range, where the Point of Control (POC) is positioned — this is the level where market participants appear to have been most active over several months, making it a key reference zone. Above current levels, the volume profile remains dense up to 189, which aligns with local highs from the second half of 2025 and may act as the nearest resistance.

The RSI stands at 49.37, remaining in neutral territory and offering no clear directional bias. The latest session’s volume, at 107.11 million, suggests continued market participation. However, it is worth noting that the most pronounced spikes in volume and volatility typically occur around earnings releases — and with the next report scheduled for May 2026, the stock may continue to consolidate within the current range.

Summary

NVIDIA appears to remain in a prolonged consolidation phase, supported by strong operational performance but weighed by a subdued macro environment. The volume profile highlights significant activity above current price levels, while RSI remains neutral. Market participants seem to be assessing incoming signals without rushing to firm conclusions.

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