NVDA Shares Approach Strong Resistance

Production of NVIDIA processors is concentrated in Taiwan via TSMC, making the company sensitive to US trade policy. In the first quarter of fiscal 2026, NVIDIA recorded a $4.5bn write-down due to restrictions on H20 chip exports to China. At the same time, the revenue structure remains resilient — around 69% of revenue comes from the US domestic market, where hyperscalers continue to increase purchases of accelerators for data centres.

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, revenue reached $68.1bn, representing a 73% year-on-year increase, while full-year revenue totalled $215.9bn (+65%). In late March, the company announced an expansion of its strategic partnership with Marvell Technology, including a $2bn investment and integration via the NVLink Fusion ecosystem, further extending its presence in the Physical AI and robotics segment. However, the overall macroeconomic backdrop remains subdued.

Technical picture

After reaching an all-time high near 210 in November 2025, the stock entered a corrective phase. The low of this correction was marked at 165 on 30 March 2026. A rebound followed from this level; however, the price remains around 177, without showing a convincing recovery. The horizontal volume profile provides further clarity.

The highest concentration of trading activity over the period under review is located in the 181–183 zone, where the point of control (POC) is situated. This area reflects the most active trading over several months, making it a key reference zone for market participants. Above current levels, the volume profile remains dense up to 189, which coincides with the local highs from the second half of 2025 and acts as the nearest resistance level.

The RSI stands at 49.37 and remains in neutral territory, offering no clear directional advantage. The latest session’s volume reached 107.11 million shares, indicating sustained market participation. However, it should be noted that the most pronounced spikes in volume and volatility have historically occurred ahead of and following quarterly earnings releases. As a result, the stock may continue to consolidate within the current range until new fundamental catalysts emerge.

Key takeaways

NVIDIA remains in a prolonged consolidation phase, supported by strong operational performance but a muted macroeconomic backdrop. The volume profile shows a significant supply overhang above current price levels, while the RSI does not favour either side. Market participants continue to assess incoming signals without committing to a sustained directional bias.

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