NVIDIA: Kyber NVL144 Dispute Weighs on the Stock

NVIDIA shares found themselves at the centre of debate over the future of the Kyber NVL144 system. On 6 July, CNBC, citing research firm SemiAnalysis, reported that the project could be delayed by more than a year—from 2027 to 2028—due to manufacturing issues involving a specialised printed circuit board (PCB). NVIDIA firmly denied the claims, helping the stock recover more than 1%.

Sentiment was also supported by a Goldman Sachs note, which described NVIDIA's forward P/E ratio of 21.7 as attractive compared with its historical average (estimated by secondary sources at around 72). According to SemiAnalysis, a delay could provide competitors such as AMD and Google with a temporary opportunity to narrow the technology gap. However, the market's reaction suggests investors are, for now, placing greater confidence in NVIDIA's denial than in the reported production concerns.

Technical Outlook

On the H4 chart, NVIDIA (NVDA) had been trading within a descending corrective channel that developed after the mid-May peak near $236. Recently, however, the price attempted to break above the channel's upper boundary. Combined with a move above the upper edge of the current Market Profile at $202, this increases the possibility that the corrective structure is beginning to reverse.

If the bullish scenario unfolds, the next significant resistance levels could be located around $215 and $232. Below the current price, the Point of Control (POC) remains near $195, followed by two important support levels: the lower boundary of the Market Profile at $192 and the green support zone around $190.

It is also worth noting that vertical trading volume declined noticeably during the second half of the corrective channel, which may indicate weakening market participation. As a result, the move above the Market Profile could prove temporary unless supported by stronger buying activity. Meanwhile, the RSI + MAs indicator currently reads 52, 52, and 48, with all three lines clustered in neutral territory and not yet providing confirmation of the potential upside breakout.

Summary

The break above the descending channel is technically encouraging, but without stronger volume confirmation it could still prove to be a temporary move within a broader correction. The stock's next directional move will likely depend on whether the debate surrounding the Kyber NVL144 project develops further or gradually fades from investors' attention.

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