The DAX 40 has shed more than 2% over the past several sessions, breaking a rally that had pushed the index to record highs on the back of Germany's fiscal pivot toward defence, infrastructure and climate spending. The pullback raises a legitimate question: is this a healthy pause within an intact uptrend, or the start of a deeper correction?

On the macro front, the picture remains mixed but constructive. German durable goods orders surprised meaningfully to the upside, hinting that domestic industry may finally be turning a corner. That said, a portion of this year's projected GDP growth stems from calendar effects rather than genuine demand recovery.

Monetary policy offers the clearest explanation for the recent weakness. The ECB delivered its first hike since 2023 in June, and the shift in tone alone unsettled rate-sensitive DAX sectors like Financials and real estate, while a firmer euro added pressure on export-driven industrials.

Technical Analysis

As the chart shows, DAX 40 (GDAXI on FXOpen) has climbed steadily from April's lows along a well-respected ascending trendline, recently pushing to new record highs near 26,000 before the sharp two-session pullback that triggered this correction. Price has now retraced heading to that same trendline, which converges with the 24,500-24,600 support zone—making this an important decision point for the index.

Bullish Scenario

If buyers step back in and defend the trendline together with the 24,500-24,600 zone, the broader uptrend structure remains intact. In this case, the recent drop would look more like a routine shakeout than a genuine reversal. From there, a renewed push back above the 25,400-25,550 resistance area—where the index broke down during the pullback—would be the first sign that momentum is returning. A clean break above that zone would put fresh record highs firmly back on the table, extending the rally that has defined the DAX since April.

Bearish Scenario

On the other hand, a decisive daily close below the trendline and the 24,500-24,600 support would be a meaningful technical signal, suggesting the correction has more room to run. Losing this zone would likely trigger further selling, as it has acted as a springboard for the rally since spring. In that scenario, the index would probably drift toward the 24,000 area first, with 23,000-23,200—the last major support tested back in April—becoming the key downside target if selling pressure intensifies.

With price now sitting exactly on this critical trendline, the coming sessions look set to decide whether the DAX's record-breaking run continues, or whether this correction has only just begun.

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