Ethereum: Has the Recovery Begun?

Ethereum has staged a notable rebound after once again testing the heavily watched psychological zone around 1500$. Since bouncing off this support, ETH/USD has climbed roughly 13%, now trading around the $1,700 mark.

This recovery is being driven by a combination of technical and fundamental factors. On the technical side, the aforementioned support zone has once again proven its relevance, attracting buyers at a historically significant level. On the fundamental side, the latest US Non-Farm Payrolls report added just 57,000 jobs in June, well below the 110K-115K consensus and a sharp slowdown from May's downwardly revised 129,000. Combined with a 74,000-job downward revision to the prior two months, the weaker print has weighed on the US Dollar, reducing the likelihood of near-term Fed rate hikes and boosting risk assets positioned as an alternative to the greenback — including cryptocurrencies.

Technical analysis of ETH/USD

After bouncing off the $1,500 support zone, Ethereum seems to be directed to a key test at the former support, turned resistance, around $1,800.

Bullish scenario
A confirmed break and hold above the $1,800 level would allow ETH to sustain bullish momentum and begin forming a structure of higher highs and higher lows after months of bearish price action. This potential recovery also finds support from a notable bullish divergence on the 4-hour RSI, where a sequence of rising lows on the indicator contrasts with the sequence of falling lows on price, a signal that downward momentum may be fading.

Bearish scenario
Alternatively, as price approaches the $1,800 resistance, ETH could reject the level and resume its broader downtrend, slipping back below the intermediate $1,680–$1,700 zone. Such a move would suggest the asset still lacks the strength needed to break through this crucial threshold.

Investors and traders remain focused on new Fed Chair Warsh's statements and their impact on the DXY. Will a weaker Dollar Index prove to be the real catalyst for a bullish return across the crypto market?

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