Cryptocurrencies Continue Range-bound Trading

FXOpen

Cryptocurrencies are continuing the range-bound trading. Bitcoin spent the last 7 days between a high of $240 and a low of $208. Similarly, Litecoin formed its own congestion area between $1.66 and $1.94. Peercoin had a wild ride, first rallying over 50 percent to a high of $0.475, then falling 31% to a low of $0.324. But ultimately, despite the large moves PPC is trading undecided at $0.382 per coin.

Bitcoin Range Continues, Volatility Shrinks

The range established last week continues with bitcoin prices stuck between a high of $240 and a low of $208. During the past six days BTC/USD traded in an even narrower range between $227 and $211. The decrease in volatility can be easily seen with the ATR (Average True Range) on the chart below.

BTCUSDDaily-fev10

The Average Daily Range of the last 14 days dropped from $28 dollars on January 26th to a low of $15 dollars yesterday. If history is any guide, the ever narrower ranges should eventually lead to a breakout. A move in either direction is a possibility so let’s examine both scenarios.

BTCUSDH4-fev10

On the upside, we may get some follow-through if prices clear $250 per coin. But the important number to watch continues to be the $300 round figure. A BTC move above here could lead to more gains toward $335 and perhaps to $350. On the lower end, while a break of the $200 round figure may lead to some losses, the key figure is the $192 swing low. A bitcoin breakdown below may lead us to retest the important $162 level.

Litecoin Stuck Between $1.66 and $1.90

Alternative cryptocurrency Litecoin is in a similar boat, having formed its own range between $1.66 on the low end and $1.94 on the high end. The crypto is trading weaker compared to its big brother. Today we saw prices dip briefly below the previous low of $1.665, marking a new low of $1.66. But the move lower was met with heavy buying that took LTC to $1.70 per coin. We are currently quoted at $1.691.

LTCUSDH4-fev10

Due to the possibility for false breaks near $1.66, a better level to look at is $1.50. A move below here may lead to more losses toward the January 18th low near $1.24. Further down, the $1 parity level will be very important. This was the stopping point for Litecoin’s decline this year. A breakdown below could exacerbate the losses. On the upside, a breakout beyond the $2 round figure may have some follow-through. But to restart the uptrend, LTC/USD will need to take out the previous swing high at $2.409.

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