Gold Price Prospects for H2

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As shown by the daily XAU/USD chart:

→ Since November 2022, the price has been moving in an upward channel, marked in orange;

→ Since the start of 2024, the price has risen by approximately 12.5%.

What are the gold price forecasts for the end of 2024?

According to Investing.com, Georgette Boele, a senior sustainability economist at ABN Amro, published a cautious forecast on 27 June, predicting a gold price of $2000 per ounce by the end of the year. In her view:

→ Gold prices peaked at the beginning of the year but have since lost momentum.

→ Anticipated easing measures by central banks have not provided the expected support to gold prices.

→ Concerns about physical gold shortages, which were a factor during the COVID crisis, are unfounded in the current market.

On the other hand, longer-term forecasts are optimistic. Analysts at Bank of America believe the gold price could rise to $3000 within 12-18 months. Their arguments include:

→ Lowering Federal Reserve rates could trigger an inflow of funds into ETFs backed by physical gold;

→ The desire to reduce USD holdings in portfolios is likely to lead to increased gold purchases by central banks.

Technical analysis of the XAU/USD chart shows that:

→ After the price reached the upper boundary of the channel twice in the first half of the year (indicated by numbers), the bulls lost momentum;

→ This resulted in a consolidation pattern resembling a triangle (shown by blue lines), within which the gold price fluctuated throughout June.

Note that a similar consolidation was observed at the beginning of 2024, and a bullish breakout led to a sharp rally.

It is possible that a breakout of the current pattern could lead to a trend that significantly influences which gold price forecast—BofA’s bullish or ABN Amro’s bearish—proves more accurate.

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This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.

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