No Progress for BTC/USD as Fork Fears Reemerge

FXOpen

Since our last update a few days ago BTC/USD prices remained mostly range-bound. Initially, it looked like we may break the important $3,000 handle but after fork fears reappeared prices took a nosedive today.

Bitcoin Ranges as Fork Fears Reemerge

Bitcoin is quoted at $2,546 dollars per coin right now, slightly down from the $2,558 handle noted in our last update. Volatility has been high though and during this time we hit a high of $2,750 and a low of $2,523.

btcusdh4-july25-copy

Technically the trend on the daily charts is still up. To end it the bears will need to take us below this month’s low at $1,812. A break of this important level would also start a new downtrend. On the weekly and monthly charts, the trend remains up.

Fundamentally, fork fears took center stage again during the past few days. A UAHF (User Activated Hard Fork) called bitcoin cash will launch on August 1st. The code is mostly the same as the current bitcoin, with an added blocksize increase to 8 MB. Exchange VIABTC listed a futures contract of Bitcoin Cash (BCC). It is currently trading at 3,030 Yuan for one coin or about $449 at current exchange rates.

It is rumored that BCC is a ‘backup bitcoin’ for some Chinese miners who fear that the 2 MB hard fork part of the Segwit2x code won’t be honored 3 months down the line. More on the technical details about Segwit2x HERE. More on bitcoin cash and the future implications for BTC holders HERE.

Litecoin Still Range-bound

Litecoin is staying inside its large range and continues to be mostly dragged up/down by the moves in BTC/USD. Today, for example, we’re seeing a large 5% drop in LTC/USD as bitcoin lost 8 percent.

ltcusdh4-july25-copy

To end the current stalemate LTC/USD will need to break out, either up or down. The bulls need a move above the $51.27 swing high to potentially re-start the rally. The bears are looking at the $35.30 swing low. A decisive break below the July lows could start a new downtrend.

Weak support below here can be found at $35, followed by $30 round figure. We have a stronger support area around $26 per coin. A clearing of this area could lead to more losses. For now, we are in ‘wait and see’ mode here. On the long-term weekly and monthly charts however Litecoin is still looking bullish.

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