FXOpen
Today, the price of Brent crude has dropped below $60 per barrel, marking its lowest level since March 2021. As shown on the XBR/USD chart, from the start of 2025, the price saw a rise of around 2.6% at the end of March 2025.
Why is oil falling?
The key driver is the escalation of the trade war. Yesterday, the US President announced the imposition of additional tariffs on trade with China, bringing the total to 104%.
The decline in Brent prices seems to reflect traders' concerns about the risks of a global recession.
Oil price forecasts for 2025 and 2026
Yesterday, analysts at Goldman Sachs released their oil price forecasts for Brent and WTI crude. They expect prices to reach $62 per barrel for Brent and $58 for WTI by December 2025. By December 2026, they anticipate a further decline to $55 and $51, respectively. However, analysts caveat that these forecasts are based on the assumption that the US will avoid a recession and that OPEC+ countries will increase their supplies.
In the event of a global economic slowdown, Brent prices could drop to $40 by the end of 2026.
Technical analysis of the XBR/USD chart today
The sharp decline in Brent prices has resulted in a forceful breach of key lows from 2024 and 2025 around the $68.68 level.
Additionally, the XBR/USD chart shows that the price continues to follow a downward channel (indicated in red), with the following levels acting as resistance (marked by arrows):
→ The upper boundary of the channel;
→ Its median (previously acting as support) – indicating the dominance of supply forces.
It is possible that the lower boundary of the channel, strengthened by the psychological level of $60.00, will provide support, slowing the bearish progress of Brent prices. However, the key factor will undoubtedly be the news flow, with sharp statements from the White House.
Traders are focusing on how China will react to the 104% tariffs announced by Donald Trump. As Reuters reports, the President stated yesterday, "We have many countries coming to us wanting to make deals," adding that he expects China to also seek an agreement.
Start trading commodity CFDs with tight spreads (additional fees may apply). Open your trading account now or learn more about trading commodity CFDs with FXOpen.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Stay ahead of the market!
Subscribe now to our mailing list and receive the latest market news and insights delivered directly to your inbox.
Latest articles
Why the CPI Release Matters for the Price of Bitcoin
The previous Consumer Price Index (CPI) report was published on 13 January and had a significant impact on Bitcoin’s price. As the BTC/USD chart shows:
→ shortly after the release, the price surged aggressively to the 14 January peak;
Nasdaq 100 May Retest This Year’s Low
As the chart of the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) shows, bearish sentiment currently dominates the equity market. Yesterday, the technology index fell by around 2%.
Why Is the Nasdaq 100 Declining?
According to media reports,
Euro And Sterling Rally Slows After Strong US Data
At the start of the week, the euro and sterling posted solid gains amid dollar weakness and expectations of a more accommodative Federal Reserve policy path, testing local highs. However, the release of the January US employment report shifted market