If you follow FXOpen’s publications, you may recall how in 2024, we repeatedly analysed the XBR/USD chart and drew several key parallel lines. For example, in our publication at the end of November.

This is significant because the uppermost of the three lines drawn last year acted as resistance, where the current peak of 2025 was formed, as shown by the arrow.

Price fluctuations in the context of these three lines can be interpreted as follows:
→ The middle line suggests the zone where the fair value of a barrel is likely to be. This is supported by the fact that at the beginning of 2025, the price consolidated near the middle line around the $76 mark;
→ The rise to the upper line indicated an overbought market condition.

Subsequently, like a pendulum, the price of Brent oil began to move in the opposite direction – down towards the middle line, where the fair value is presumably located. The current dominance of sellers is supported by:

→ Trump’s intentions to develop new oil fields, increase exports, and move away from the “green transition”;
→ A reduction in geopolitical tensions – notably, the ceasefire and prisoner exchanges between Israel and Hamas.

It is possible that the sellers’ momentum will continue, as the revival of the US economy through cheap oil may be part of the strategic plans of the new team in the White House, which would drive the trend towards the middle line on the XBR/USD chart.

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