BTC/USD Analysis: Bitcoin Price at a Critical Support Level

In our 28 January report, "Bitcoin Price Holds Above $100k. For Now?", we highlighted the heightened volatility surrounding Trump’s inauguration. We speculated that major market players might have capitalized on this surge to lock in profits from long positions, potentially preparing for a bearish market phase. Since then, Bitcoin's price has dropped by approximately 20%.

BTC/USD Chart Analysis Today

Fresh price data allows for a refined trend channel (marked in blue), capturing several bullish factors for cryptocurrency investors. These include capital inflows into Bitcoin ETFs and Trump’s fulfilled promise to establish a National Cryptocurrency Reserve.

However, Bitcoin is now testing the lower boundary of this critical channel. Notably, bulls have made two attempts to reclaim the uptrend:

→ The first attempt (marked by an arrow) took place on 11 March, but the $88,000 level proved to be strong resistance, pushing Bitcoin’s price back to the lower channel boundary.

→ The second attempt occurred this week but also appears unsuccessful, as the price once again failed to break above $88,000. BTC/USD has now retreated back to the lower boundary of the trend channel.

A long upper wick (marked by an arrow) signals bearish aggression, triggered by news of Trump’s tariffs. This development raises the risk of a bearish breakout from the long-term ascending channel.

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