In our previous analysis of Bitcoin’s price (dated 4 April), we:

→ outlined a long-term ascending channel (marked by blue lines);
→ noted signs suggesting a potential bearish breakout below the channel’s lower boundary.

Since then, bears indeed managed to push the price (as shown by the arrow) below the channel's lower line – driven by a broader sell-off in risk assets amid mounting concerns over a global recession, fuelled by trade wars and the introduction of international tariffs.

But what does the BTC/USD chart tell us today?

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD Today

Bears have so far failed to capitalise on the break below support.

Currently, Bitcoin’s price is trading above the former breakout level, which may suggest that bulls are regaining control. If the previous bearish breakout was indeed false, this raises the possibility of a genuine breakout above resistance (marked by line R). This scenario would pave the way for a continuation of the long-term uptrend on the BTC/USD chart and reinforce the relevance of the ascending channel – as highlighted by a divergence on the RSI indicator.

Will the bullish scenario play out? Much will depend on the underlying fundamentals. It’s worth noting that the ongoing crisis in the US bond market (linked to Trump’s tariff policies) could create a favourable backdrop for further bullish momentum. Or, in the words of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes in a post on X, it may signal the start of “only up” mode for Bitcoin’s price.

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