Earlier we asked whether October would prove bullish for Bitcoin. The BTC/USD chart has given a clear negative answer. November, too, appears likely to close in the red — despite the fact that these two months have historically marked one of the strongest periods of growth for the leading cryptocurrency.

The previously identified range of $116K–$120K has acted as a strong resistance zone, and Bitcoin’s price fluctuations are now more clearly shaping a descending channel, the lower boundary of which connects the series of lower lows formed over the past three months.

Concerns have been heightened by a Bloomberg report noting that, unlike the “October crash”, which was largely driven by the liquidation of leveraged positions, the current wave of selling is coming from a key segment of the market — long-term holders. Since early October, they have reportedly sold around 400,000 BTC, which could serve as a warning signal for the market.

Technical Analysis of BTC/USD

Early November was marked by a decline below the psychological $100K level — a false bearish breakout. Following a brief spike in panic-driven selling, the price rebounded towards the channel’s median, effectively mirroring the earlier false bullish breakout that had established the current all-time high. This price action resembles a liquidity grab pattern.

It is worth noting that the $107K level has now switched its role from support to resistance, reflecting the bears’ (so far successful) attempt to keep the price in the lower half of the red channel. Should they maintain control, the market may move towards a test of the June lows, where another false bearish breakout could potentially form — as indicated by the arrow with a question mark on the chart.

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