From July 3 to July 7, 15 reputable strategists were interviewed (among them - Bank of America Chief Equity Strategist Savita Subramanian, Charles Schwab Chief Investment Strategist Liz Ann).
9 respondents suggested that the price of the S&P 500 in the 2nd half of the year will fall below current levels. Most of the rest suggested that it would rise, but only slightly. The median opinion is that the S&P 500 forecast for the end of 2023 is 4,255 points (below the current level of 4,444 points).
The reason for pessimism is the lack of growth drivers, which were the boom associated with AI in the first half of the year; against its background, the S&P rose by 15.9%. According to UBS Global Wealth Management investment director Mark Hefele, the main risk for the stock market is that the US Federal Reserve will continue to raise rates, consumer spending will begin to decline, and the US economy will face a recession — eventually this will lead to a hard landing.
Since Monday, the price of S&P 500 has been showing growth, indicating the optimism of market participants regarding inflation values — the news will be published today, at 15:30 GMT+3.
The chart shows that the price of the S&P 500 is rising within the channel shown in blue. In this case, the median line acts as a support.
However, disappointing inflation data, as well as the first data of the company reporting season for the Q2, may turn the mood to bearish, thereby increasing the likelihood of investment strategists' forecast being realized.
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