Market Analysis: Australian Dollar Reaches Its Highest Since Early August

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Important events regarding AUD took place this morning:
→ the level of retail sales for the month in Australia unexpectedly fell: actual = -0.2%, expected = +0.1%, a month earlier = +0.9%.
→ a press conference was held by the head of the RBA, Michelle Bullock, according to whom inflation in Australia follows the path of overseas countries. That is, inflation is decreasing, as in the USA and Great Britain.

Against the background of these events, the AUD/USD rate exceeded the level of 0.663 for the first time since the beginning of August. The rally from the late October low is already about 5.5%. However, this upward trend has 3 important obstacles:

  1. The upper limit of the November ascending channel (shown in blue).
  2. The upper limit of the longer-term parallel channel (shown in red).
  3. Level 0.660. During 2023, it worked as support once. Therefore, from the point of view of technical analysis, there is reason to expect that it will provide resistance.

And although the price of AUD/USD today exceeded these levels, it can hardly be said with confidence that it has consolidated there. Also pay attention to the RSI indicator, which is on the border of the overbought zone.

Taking into account the above factors, it is acceptable to expect a pullback in the market. The trigger could be news about the CPI values for Australia, which will be published tomorrow.

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