Market Analysis: Nikkei 225 Reaches Psychological Level at 33,000


In 2023, Japan's stock market is in a bullish trend (shown by the blue channel) as the country has an ultra-loose monetary policy (unlike other G7 countries that are fighting inflation). As a result, the cheap yen helps Japanese companies, which are largely export-oriented, to develop. According to the Cabinet of Japan, GDP in the second quarter of 2023 increased by 2% compared to the same quarter of the previous year.

The growth of the Japanese stock market from the beginning of the year to today is about 28%. And on Sept. 5, the Nikkei 225 closed above the psychological 33,000 level. Yahoo Finance reports that Kenji Abe, Daiwa Securities equity strategist, predicts the Nikkei could gradually rise to 35,000 after a strong reporting season this summer.

Bearish arguments:

→ the level of 33,000 points can serve as psychological resistance. After the Doji candle on September 6 (which can be interpreted as the uncertainty of market participants in the continuation of growth), the price dropped on the morning of September 7, which confirms the weakening of demand.

→ line (1), built on the highs of summer, can provide resistance.

However, the bullish argument is that the line (1) is an element of the flag technical analysis pattern. If the pattern works, then we should expect its breakdown and the continuation of the trend in 2023. How likely this scenario is can be judged by the depth of the rollback from the line (1), which is already looming on the chart.

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